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HomeStartupSteve Clean Know-how, Innovation, and Nice Energy Competitors – Class 4- Semiconductors

Steve Clean Know-how, Innovation, and Nice Energy Competitors – Class 4- Semiconductors

This text first appeared in West Level’s Fashionable Warfare Institute.  

We simply accomplished the fourth week of our new nationwide safety class at Stanford – Know-how, Innovation and Nice Energy CompetitorsJoe FelterRaj Shah and I designed the category to cowl how know-how will form all the weather of nationwide energy (America’s affect and footprint on the world stage).

In class 1, we discovered that nationwide energy is the mix of a rustic’s diplomacy (mushy energy and alliances), data/intelligence, army energy, financial energy, finance, intelligence, and legislation enforcement. This “complete of presidency strategy” is thought by the acronym DIME-FIL.  And after twenty years targeted on counter terrorism, the U.S. is now engaged in nice energy competitors with each China and Russia.

In school 2 the category targeted on China, the U.S.’s main nice energy competitor. China is utilizing all parts of nationwide energy: diplomacy (mushy energy, alliances, coercion), data/ intelligence (utilizing its financial leverage over Hollywood, controlling the Covid narrative), its army would possibly and financial energy (Belt and Street Initiative) in addition to exploiting Western finance and know-how. China’s aim is to problem and overturn the U.S.-led liberal worldwide order and change it with a neo-totalitarian mannequin.

The third class targeted on Russia, which is asserting itself as an amazing energy challenger. We discovered how Russia pursues safety and financial pursuits in parallel with its ideological goals. At occasions, these targets complement one another. At different occasions they conflict, Putin’s need to revive Russia into an amazing energy as soon as once more results in a international coverage that’s reverse the pursuits of the Russia folks. As Putin himself has mentioned, “The collapse of the Soviet Union was a significant geopolitical catastrophe of the century,” and that quote affords a window to his worldview as he tries to remake Russia into an amazing energy as soon as once more.”

Having coated the weather of nationwide energy (DIME-FIL) and China and Russia, the category now shifts to the impression business applied sciences have on DIME-FIL. At this time’s subject – Semiconductors.

Meet up with the category by studying our intro to the category, and summaries of Courses 1, 2 and 3.

Class 4 Required Readings:

Silicon Valley, the Army, and the Journey to the Fourth Industrial Revolution

Moore’s Regulation & the International Semiconductor Trade

Semiconductor Case Research

Studying Project Questions:

Choose one of many under questions and reply in roughly 100 phrases, based mostly on the required readings. Please be aware that this project can be graded and rely in the direction of course participation.

  1. Describe the roles of Fred Terman, William Shockley, and Fairchild Semiconductor within the genesis of Silicon Valley. Who had a higher position in creating Silicon Valley, Fred Terman or the Traitorous Eight?
  2. How would you characterize China’s try and catch-up within the semiconductor business? Do you suppose China can credibly catch TSMC (with out an invasion of Taiwan)? Why or why not?

Dialogue Questions

  1. Put your self within the sneakers of Mark Liu, chairman of TSMC: Do you view China as extra of a competitor or buyer – and why?
  2. Now think about you’re the NSC Senior Director with accountability for know-how technique. What’s the very first thing the U.S. Gov’t ought to do concerning semiconductors?

Class 4: Visitor Speaker
Our visitor speaker for our fourth class was John Hurley, former Member of the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board, an skilled on semiconductors and provide chains, and former Captain, U.S. Military.

Lecture 4

When you can’t see the slides, click on right here

Slide 4. The essential position of semiconductors in nice energy competitors. Each our business and army programs are depending on semiconductors. China spends extra on semiconductor imports than it does on oil. We framed the advances in know-how as a part of the 4th industrial revolution. Slides 5-7. We reminded the scholars of the position the DoD and IC performed at Stanford turning it into an outward-facing college, which kick-started know-how entrepreneurship right here in Silicon Valley.

Slides September 11 Twin-use know-how. For the primary time in 75 years, federal labs and our prime contractors are now not main innovation in lots of essential applied sciences together with AI, machine studying, autonomy, biotech, business entry to house, and many others. Speedy advances in these areas are actually taking place by way of business corporations – many in China. It is a radical change in the place superior know-how comes from. Within the U.S., the federal government is painfully studying reorient its necessities and acquisition course of to purchase these business, off-the-shelf applied sciences. (Merchandise which might be bought commercially and to the DoD are known as “dual-use.”)

Slide 15. Semiconductor business. We started a deep dive into semiconductors by drawing the map of the semiconductor business (Slides 3-15 from this required studying.) 5 firms present the vast majority of the wafer fab gear wanted to make chips. TSMC is the main fab for manufacturing logic chips. (Slides 32-33 from this required studying.) Of the 29 new fabs beginning building in 2021-22, over half are in China and Taiwan.

Slide 16. TSMC Case. We took the category via the TSMC case examine and mapped out the roles and pursuits of TSMC, China, Intel, and the U.S. Slides 17-18. We mentioned China’s drive for semiconductor independence, U.S. export controls on Huawei (why and its penalties,) the assorted constituencies of a U.S. semiconductor coverage (Commerce Division, DoD, U.S. chip makers, U.S. semi gear suppliers, and many others.), whether or not TSMC’s success makes Taiwan kind of safe, given China’s objectives of reunification with Taiwan.

Slide 19-20. Coverage.  How do determination makers formulate coverage? Does it begin by asking “What drawback can we need to resolve?” Utilizing semiconductors for example, is it China’s entry to U.S. know-how?  Or is it China embedding this superior U.S.-designed know-how into their army programs? Or what occurs to TSMC and Western entry to superior know-how if China quarantines or invades Taiwan?

How do coverage makers choose and slim an issue? Is it based mostly on the worth the coverage provides for recognized stakeholders? Is it a private ardour/curiosity? Particularly for China and semiconductors, what are potential answer concepts? Export controls? Stronger CFIUS laws? How do you take note of stakeholder suggestions (DoD, Commerce Division, business corporations)? And when you create a coverage, how do you successfully implement it?

Slide 21 -23. Class midterm project: Assume you’re a coverage maker. Write a 2,000-word coverage memo that describes how a U.S. competitor is utilizing a selected know-how  (semiconductors, AI, autonomy, cyber, and many others.) to counter U.S. pursuits. Suggest how the U.S. ought to reply.

Slides 25- 32 Group Tasks. We had a number of groups speak about their learnings from their out-of-the constructing interviews. Group ShortCircuit (Slide 29) is engaged on how the U.S. ought to enhance its means to design and produce semiconductors, and develop and retain related expertise. They heard from a professor that the ratio of Stanford college students taking software program versus {hardware} programs was 10-to-1 software program, a whole reversal from many years in the past. We mentioned whether or not  1) that was true or simply anecdotal 2) if true, was it the identical in different analysis universities, 3) why it occurred (software program startups are getting funded at obscene valuations)? 4) and how much incentives and insurance policies could be wanted to alter that, and 5) the place within the worth chain these is likely to be only (college students, enterprise capitalists, authorities, and many others.)

Subsequent week: Synthetic Intelligence / Machine Studying

Classes Realized

  • Semiconductors are the oil of the 21st All economies run on them.
  • Semiconductors are China’s largest imports
  • China’s roadmap for constructing an indigenous semiconductor business and accelerating chip manufacturing is the Nationwide Built-in Circuit Plan
    • The aim is to satisfy its native chip demand by 2030
  • The U.S. relies on TSMC, situated in Taiwan, for its most superior logic chips
    • China claims Taiwan is a province of China
    • TSMC will construct a fab in Arizona, however it should characterize solely 2% of its capability
  • What are U.S. coverage makers’ choices?

11/02/2021 Know-how, Innovation, and Nice Energy Competitors – Class 4 – Semiconductors



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